The removal of Kristi Noem as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), rather than signaling a governing crisis, could become a political opportunity for President Donald Trump to regain and consolidate support among Latino voters.
To do so, he would need to recalibrate how his immigration policy is implemented, without necessarily changing its original objective.
Latinos showed up for Trump in 2024
In 2024, Trump improved his performance among Latino voters to historically high levels for a Republican in modern times. Roughly 46% of the Latino vote went to him, a figure that significantly narrowed the electoral gap that has traditionally favored Democrats and helped drive a Republican victory not only nationwide, but even in counties where a Republican presidential candidate had never won before.
That electoral shift was driven by two main factors: the economy and immigration enforcement. On the latter point, according to a YouGov study conducted between October 31 and November 1, 2024, a highly significant share of Latino voters supported the idea of “arresting and deporting millions of undocumented immigrants.” The reasons behind that position are varied and deserve careful attention and analysis.
However, the Democratic presidential campaign failed to read the moment correctly. It made two very costly mistakes: it minimized or downplayed the border crisis, and it resorted to moral shaming by suggesting that a Latino voter could not support a white Republican man without betraying “their identity.”
Some Democratic leaders have acknowledged these mistakes. One example is New York Representative Ritchie Torres, who assigned a meaningful share of the blame for the presidential election outcome to the previous Democratic administration’s poor handling of, and delayed response to, the immigration crisis. He warned that this mismanagement came at a very high political price.
Controlling migration: a promise kept by Trump
In that context, President Trump’s second administration took office determined to fulfill one of its main campaign promises. To that end, it quickly launched a series of operations and enforcement actions by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in major cities such as Los Angeles and Chicago.
The reaction to ICE enforcement operations revealed growing controversy. In Los Angeles, reporting documented a severe economic impact in several heavily Latino areas. The same thing happened in Chicago, where journalistic investigations described how some iconic working-class Mexican neighborhoods were deeply disrupted by mass arrests, with large-scale social and economic consequences, including the collapse of local commerce.
Kristi Noem: the face of massive and ruthless raids
Kristi Noem became the public face of the Trump administration’s immigration policy. The former secretary maintained a constant presence in public opinion, always associated with the coercive power of the state. This ultimately spread fear not only among undocumented immigrants, but among immigrants more broadly, especially Latinos.
Noem’s public image, measured at different points by YouGov/YouGov–Economist and YouGov, showed high levels of unfamiliarity at the start of the current administration. This gradually evolved into the broad rejection we see today.
With Kristi Noem out, Trump has a new chance with Latinos
Noem’s departure from DHS gives President Trump an opportunity to rethink how his immigration policy is carried out. This, so it is seen not only as necessary — something a very large number of Latinos agree with — but also as fair.
Latinos understand and can support the need to detain and deport undocumented immigrants, especially if they have committed crimes; but they resent and reject the way that idea is put into practice when it is perceived as violent, indiscriminate, and humiliating. That is the key to understanding the shift between 2024, when the message of immigration control was electorally effective, and what we are seeing now, when the implementation of mass raids in different cities has left deep and far-reaching scars on public opinion.
In a pre-midterm cycle, that adjustment could prove decisive. President Trump already showed in 2024 that Latino voters are receptive to a message centered on order and economic prosperity. If the new DHS leadership can restore predictability, proportionality, and institutional control to law enforcement, Trump could regain part of his Latino support.
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The Latino Effect editorial team
