This week, President Donald Trump will deliver the second State of the Union address of his current term. As is customary, the speech will serve to present the achievements reached so far, highlight the administration’s priorities for the near future, and reinforce the government’s political narrative.
However, beyond the message itself, it is crucial to pay close attention to the context in which this new address will be delivered. To understand that context, it is useful to compare the public opinion climate ahead of the March 2025 speech with the current environment. Doing so allows us to measure not only the evolution of overall support for the president, but also the shifts within one of the country’s most dynamic and decisive electorates: Latino voters.
The Main Issues
Today, three issues clearly dominate Latino concerns: inflation and the cost of living, job creation and the broader economy, and immigration. Across all three fronts, the data show deterioration compared to last year, with political implications that could ultimately translate into electoral outcomes.
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Inflation and Prices: The “Affordability Crisis”
Inflation and rising prices now top the list of concerns for Latino voters. The “affordability crisis” is not an abstract concept. It means higher rents, more expensive groceries, and less room for savings. That frustration has already had visible political consequences. In New York, for example, Mamdani’s victory was widely interpreted as a backlash against the rising cost of living and the perception that political leaders were not offering sufficient solutions.
According to recent YouGov data (February 2026), a majority of Americans believe the economy is getting worse, and the perception among Latinos is especially negative. The February 2026 survey shows that 57% of Latinos believe the economy is “getting worse,” compared to just 19% who think it is “getting better.” In March 2025, the share of Latinos who believed the economy was worsening was lower (45%), while 19% thought it was improving. The increase in pessimism is clear, a 12-point jump.
This deterioration coincides with a growing narrative linking rising prices to the administration’s tariff policies. While the real economic impact of tariffs is complex and shaped by multiple factors, in public perception they have become a symbol of policies that, directly or indirectly, raise consumer costs. For many Latino households, where monthly budgets are often tighter, inflation is not a macroeconomic debate filled with technical language. It is a daily reality felt at the grocery store, the pharmacy, and the school supply aisle.
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Job Creation: A Negative Turn in the Country’s Direction and Personal Expectations
The second major area is the economy more broadly, reflected in job creation, the overall direction of the country, and expectations about the future.
In March 2025, 49% of Latinos said the country was headed in the right direction, compared to 44% who believed it was on the wrong track. One year later, in February 2026, that perception has shifted significantly. Only 26% of Latinos now believe the country is headed in the right direction, while 66% say it is on the wrong track. That represents a 23-point shift in the overall balance.
The trend is similar when respondents are asked about the state of the economy. As noted earlier, the percentage of Latinos who believe the economy is getting worse rose from 45% in March 2025 to 57% in February 2026. At the same time, the share who believe it is improving remains low and stagnant.
The deterioration is also reflected in personal expectations. In March 2025, 37% of Latinos believed they would be better off financially one year later. By February 2026, that number had fallen to 26%. Meanwhile, the share who expect to be financially the same or worse has increased. This decline in personal optimism is especially important, as economic expectations are often a powerful predictor of voting behavior.
Taken together, these indicators point to declining confidence in the country’s direction, in economic momentum, and in household prospects. In every case, the negative shift is pronounced among Latino voters.
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Immigration: From Strategic Support to Growing Criticism
Immigration was one of the issues that allowed Trump to narrow the historic gap between Republicans and Democrats among Latino voters in the last presidential election. A meaningful segment of Latino voters supported his proposal for stronger border control and greater order in the immigration system. In March 2025, 46% of Hispanics approved of the way Trump was handling immigration, while 51% disapproved. Although the net balance was slightly negative, the level of support was significant for a Republican president.
One year later, however, the landscape has changed noticeably. In February 2026, only 32% of Hispanics approve of the president’s handling of immigration, while 61% disapprove. Approval on this issue has dropped by 14 points, and disapproval has risen by ten points.
In addition, recent YouGov data show that a majority of Latinos now support dissolving ICE, a position that would have been marginal just a few years ago. This may suggest not only dissatisfaction with a specific law enforcement agency, but also a deeper shift in Latino attitudes toward immigration enforcement more broadly.
Politically, this means that one of the issues that helped Trump improve his standing among Latinos may be losing its effectiveness as an electoral bridge. The hardening of immigration policy, initially perceived by some as synonymous with order, is now viewed by many with concern, particularly over what they see as excessive use of force.
A Major Challenge Ahead of the Midterms
The broader comparison reinforces this pattern. In March 2025, the president’s overall approval among Hispanics stood at 45%, compared to 52% disapproval. By February 2026, approval had dropped to 32%, while disapproval climbed to 62%. That represents a 13-point decline in approval and a ten-point increase in disapproval.
At the national level, there is also visible erosion. The president’s overall approval rating fell from 48% in March 2025 to 39% in February 2026, while disapproval rose from 46% to 56%.
Looking ahead to the midterm elections, these numbers pose a serious challenge for Republicans. Their gains among Latino voters in the last presidential election were one of the most discussed developments of that cycle. However, if inflation continues to strain household budgets, economic perceptions keep worsening, and immigration policy generates more fear than reassurance, those gains could quickly unravel.
This year’s State of the Union will therefore be more than a routine political address. It will be an opportunity to reconnect with an electorate that, just a year ago, showed signs of openness, but now, according to the data, appears markedly more skeptical.
The Latino Effect editorial team
