Over the last fifty years, the Catholic Church in the United States has undergone one of the most profound transformations in its modern history. Once dominated by European whites—mainly descendants of Irish and Italian immigrants—it is now increasingly shaped and influenced by the growing demographic and cultural force of Latinos.
This transformation is not only redefining the racial and ethnic composition of American Catholicism but also its political and social stance.
Latinos Stopped the Catholic Decline in the United States
Since the 1970s, the Catholic Church in the United States has experienced a sustained relative decline within the general population.
In the early 1970s, Catholics represented nearly one quarter of all adults in the country. However, as secularization advanced and the non-religious population grew, that percentage gradually declined over several decades. According to the Pew Research Center, between 1990 and 2014 the Catholic share of the U.S. population fell from more than 25% to between 19% and 21%, a figure that has remained stable since then.
It is precisely at this point that Latino Catholics have become central. In the 1970s, Latinos represented about 25% of the country’s Catholic population. By 2007, that figure had risen to 29%, and by 2025 it has reached 36%.
Meanwhile, non-Hispanic white Catholics went from representing nearly two-thirds (64%) of the total in 2007 to just over half (54%) in 2025.
Latino demographic growth—driven by both immigration and higher birth rates within these communities—has been decisive in halting the decline of Catholicism in the United States. Without this factor, the American Catholic Church would likely have continued its downward demographic path, steadily losing relevance.
Catholics in the United States Not Only Pray — They Vote
Over the past two decades, the Catholic vote has functioned as an almost exact reflection of the national vote.
According to VoteCast data, in 2004 American Catholics supported George W. Bush (52%); in 2008 and 2012 they backed Barack Obama (with 54% and 50%, respectively); in 2016 they leaned toward Donald Trump (50%); and in 2020 they were nearly evenly divided between Donald Trump and Joseph Biden. In the 2024 election, Trump once again secured the majority of Catholic support with 54%.
This pattern shows that Catholics are not a fixed ideological bloc but rather a swing electorate that tends to follow the national winner. They do not move according to partisan loyalty but rather in response to short-term perceptions of concrete issues.
What has made Catholics a predictive voting group may be their diversity, since within American Catholicism there are distinct internal differences that, viewed together, make it a faithful reflection of American society as a whole.
Non-Hispanic white Catholics, for example, tend to vote primarily Republican and currently form a major pillar of President Trump’s religious base. Latino Catholics, in contrast, have historically leaned Democratic, though in recent years that gap has narrowed. The most recent example, the 2024 election, shows Latino Catholics still voting mainly Democratic, but by a smaller margin than in 2016 and 2020.
The Issues That Matter Most to Latino Catholics: Economy and Immigration
According to surveys by PRRI and The Christian Century, the main issues Latino Catholics mention are the economy, immigration, and the cost of living. About 45% identify inflation and wages as their top concern, around 35% cite immigration, and fewer than 10% prioritize moral or reproductive issues.
This is revealing because it shows that, even among a religiously identified electorate, pragmatic, everyday concerns outweigh moral or doctrinal ones.
The Republican Party and the Leadership of the Catholic Church
Although President Trump has won the Catholic vote on at least two occasions (2016 and 2024), Republicans currently face a significant challenge—especially looking ahead to the midterm elections—in securing the continued support of this group.
On immigration, accelerated deportations and large-scale raids in major cities have created friction with Catholic leadership, which, for reasons already discussed, has a special sensitivity to the fears and needs of Latino congregants. It is therefore no surprise that the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops has reaffirmed its position in favor of comprehensive immigration reform, even calling for specific guarantees for asylum seekers.
It is also worth recalling that during the religious service held at the National Cathedral in Washington, D.C., marking the inauguration of the new administration, Bishop Mariann Budde took the opportunity—before President Trump and Vice President Vance—to include in her sermon a clear message in favor of immigrants, stating: “Some may be here without proper documents, but most are not criminals, they pay their taxes, and they are good neighbors.”
That position, expressed across several levels of the Catholic Church, found strong resonance in Pope Leo XIV, who, speaking specifically about developments in the United States, declared that “to defend life also means to defend the dignity of those who seek refuge.”
Conclusion
In recent years, American Catholics in general—and Latino Catholics in particular—have gained considerable electoral relevance, largely due to a political context marked by a conservative reevaluation of recent history. Many of its voices describe that period as one in which “globalism,” “multiculturalism,” and “international progressivism” dangerously diluted Western values.
In response to such perceived threats, some argue that the best path is a return to traditional values—especially those rooted in religious faith and moral conviction. Consequently, several Republican leaders have openly expressed their enthusiasm and attachment to Christianity. Some even have stated that “the Church is supposed to control the government, not the other way around.” Others have gone so far as to create a Presidential Office of Faith.
However, these initiatives may encounter resistance among Latino Catholics, whose unease with current immigration policies runs deep. To a faith centered on the commandment “love your neighbor as yourself,” such policies may appear harsh and uncharitable. That sentiment could become an electoral driver that no party or political leader can afford to ignore.
The Latino Effect editorial team
