In the final stretch of the Democratic primary for New York City mayor, the race between Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani is getting closer than many expected. Cuomo, the former governor with statewide recognition, is facing a serious challenge from Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist and state assemblyman building momentum from the city’s progressive base.
Recent polling shows Latino voters — a community that makes up over a quarter of the city’s population — could play a decisive role in how this primary ends.
Latino Voter Power by the Numbers: key data for Cuomo and Mamdani
Latinos represent 28.3% of New York City’s population, according to the 2020 Census — a number that becomes even more striking when you zoom in by borough. In the Bronx, Latinos make up 55% of the population, the highest concentration in the city. In Queens, it’s 33%. Brooklyn and Manhattan follow with 20% and 25%, respectively. Among New Yorkers under 18, more than a third are Latino, pointing to a long-term shift that’s already starting to show up in electoral politics.
Polling Shift: A Community in Motion
Just a month ago, Latino voters seemed to be leaning solidly toward Cuomo. In the Marist poll from May, 41% of Latino Democrats backed him, while Zohran Mamdani trailed far behind at just 20%. But by mid-June, everything changed.
A new Marist poll conducted June 9–12 showed Mamdani had surged to 41% support among Latino voters — a 21-point jump in less than four weeks. Cuomo, meanwhile, saw his Latino support drop to 36%, erasing what once looked like a clear advantage.
So far, polls show Cuomo leading in the Bronx — but given that more than half of the voters there are Latino, the broader swing toward Mamdani across the city is likely raising alarms inside Cuomo’s camp. In a race this close, momentum among a base that large matters.
What’s Driving Latino Voter Realignment?
Mamdani’s rise among Latino voters isn’t just about political vibes — it’s the result of a focused strategy that speaks to the day-to-day concerns of immigrant and working-class communities.
His campaign has gone all-in on Spanish-language messaging, with videos circulating on WhatsApp and TikTok that feel more like trusted advice from a neighbor than political ads. That authenticity matters — especially in communities where political skepticism runs deep.
On the ground, the campaign made massive grassroots push. But what stands out is how they’ve recruited Spanish-speaking volunteers to knock doors and talk directly to voters in Latino neighborhoods.
Policy-wise, Mamdani has put cost-of-living issues front and center: rent freezes, fare-free transit, and stronger tenant protections. And these are issues that have resonated with Latino communities in NYC. Nonetheless, Mamdani far-left speech and allies do not fare well with older voters, including older latino voters.
Endorsements from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders have helped energize younger voters — and that momentum may be spilling into younger Latino communities as well.
Coalition-Building and Endorsements
Mamdani’s campaign isn’t just targeting Latino voters, it’s working with them, bringing trusted latino voices from the democratic party into the conversation.
Two of the most prominent Latino political figures in New York — Congresswoman Nydia Velázquez and Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso appeared in Spanish-language ads endorsing Mamdani.
Also, much of the campaign’s messaging is being shared in WhatsApp groups and TikTok feeds, where conversations about rent, food prices, and transit are already happening. Mamdani’s team hasn’t just joined those conversations, they’ve helped shape them with very good social media content.
The Ranked-Choice Voting Factor
In New York City’s ranked-choice voting system, it’s not just about who voters rank first. It’s also about who they’re willing to rank second or third. That gives communities with strong internal alignment and clear priorities a lot more leverage.
If Latino voters continue coalescing around Mamdani as a first choice, or even as a strong second, it could shape the way the rounds play out. Especially if no candidate wins an outright majority in the first count as the polls predict.
For Mamdani, building trust in Latino communities isn’t just helping with momentum, it could be the key to staying in the race deep into the ranked-choice rounds.
A Defining Role in a Defining Race: Cuomo and Mamdani in the final stretch
The Latino electorate is diverse, but the polls are showing a clear trend: they’re moving toward Mamdani. Did the shift come too late? Is the ceiling of his latino voter gains defined by age groups? We shall see once the results come in.
What we do know now is that Latino communities are paying attention, engaging, and shifting the dynamics of a primary that once looked uncontested.
I’ve seen enough primaries to know they’re often won or lost on ground game — especially during election day turnout. Everything we know suggests Cuomo has the edge when it comes to traditional operations: resources, infrastructure, and machine backing. But if Mamdani turns this into a high-turnout election where a lot of young people and young latinos vote, he could even the playing field in ways few expected.
Cuomo Has the Machine. Mamdani Has the Momentum. Who will have the Latino Vote?
Elisa Totaro
IG : @Totaro.Elisa
