Analysis: Trump and the Latino Voter: An Alliance Under Review

In 2024, Latino voters played a decisive role in the return of Donald Trump to the White House. With 46% of the Latino vote—a significant increase from 2020—his campaign successfully expanded its coalition, especially among Latino men, 55% of whom supported him (Brookings Institution, 2024).

However, just three months into his second term, the landscape is shifting. What seemed to be a consolidated alliance is now being tested by the policies and executive actions of the Trump administration. A new YouGov/Economist poll conducted in March offers key insights into how Latino voters are feeling today—and what that could mean for the political future of the country.

From Optimism to Caution

According to the poll, 63% of Hispanic respondents believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, while only 26% think it’s on the right track (YouGov/Economist Poll, March 2025). This doesn’t necessarily reflect regret, it signals growing concern over the results of current policies.

When it comes to President Trump’s favorability among Hispanic voters:

• 35% have a favorable opinion (18% very favorable, 17% somewhat favorable)
• 63% have an unfavorable opinion (50% very unfavorable, 13% somewhat)
• 2% are unsure (YouGov, 2025)

This shift is not ideological, it’s pragmatic. Latino voters are weighing expectations against results.

Focus on the Economy

The economy was one of the top issues for Latino voters in 2024, and many saw Trump as the candidate capable of restoring economic stability. But three months into his term, inflation remains a central concern.

• 65% of the Latinos surveyed disapprove of how the administration is handling inflation and prices (YouGov, 2025).
• 49% of Latinos disapprove of Trump’s approach to jobs and the economy.

Among Latinos earning under $50,000 per year, 63% believe the country is on the wrong track, a significant data point, considering this demographic strongly backed Trump for his economic message.

Meanwhile, the administration’s on-again, off-again tariff policies toward Mexico and Latin America have created additional uncertainty. According to Reuters, Constellation Brands—the importer of Modelo Especial—reported a drop in sales linked to higher prices and reduced consumption in Latino communities affected by economic strain and immigration-related stress (Reuters, April 10, 2025).

Immigration: Emotional and Political Impact

While many Latino voters support orderly immigration policy, the scope and intensity of recent enforcement measures by the Trump administration have caused unease. According to Brookings, many Latino families are experiencing heightened stress due to ICE’s expanded role and unclear legal protections (Brookings, April 8, 2025).

How many of us don’t have friends or relatives living in the U.S. today who are constantly checking the news or social media to assess whether their status might be at risk?

AP News reports a surge in deportations of Venezuelan and Cuban nationals in South Florida—communities that strongly supported Trump in 2024. This has led to frustration among asylum seekers who expected a more favorable stance from the administration (AP News, April 9, 2025).

According to YouGov, 58% of Latinos disapprove of Trump’s handling of immigration, while 34% approve. When we dive into specific attitudes about deportation, here’s what the data shows:

• On undocumented immigrants: 32% say they should be deported for any reason, 48% only if they’ve committed a crime, and 11% say they should not be deported at all.
• On visa holders: 11% say they should be deported for any reason, 43% only if they’ve committed a crime, and 37% believe they should never be deported.
• On green card holders: 4% say they should be deported, 37% say only if they commit a crime, and 52% believe they should not be deported under any circumstance.

What the Data Says About Latino Voters

The increase in Latino support for Trump in 2024—especially among men—was not driven by ideology, but by practical considerations: employment, economic stability, and conservative values. Brookings described the support as largely transactional, not doctrinal (Brookings, 2024).

This idea is reinforced by the latest YouGov data: 61% of Latino voters now disapprove of President Trump’s performance.

Policies that once helped build the 2024 coalition—such as tariffs and strict immigration enforcement—are now generating internal tensions, especially among voters who feel personally impacted.

One key indicator of this transactional nature is the evidence of split-ticket voting. According to Politico, many Latinos who voted for Trump also supported Democratic candidates in local or congressional races—signaling increased ideological independence (Politico, March 30, 2025).

In California, CalMatters reported a similar trend: Latino-majority counties showed increased support for Trump in the presidential race, but still elected Democrats at the local level (CalMatters, November 2024).

Strategic Implications

For Republican leaders, this moment is both challenging and opportunity to solidify trust from 2024 by delivering results in the economy, immigration, and small businesses.

For Republican leaders in states and cities with large Latino populations, the challenge is even more complex. In many cases, their personal stances on immigration may not align with those of Trump’s current administration, which puts them in a difficult political position.

For Democrats, there is room to reconnect with segments of the Latino electorate who feel disappointed but not necessarily closed off to other options. Community-driven outreach and culturally relevant economic messaging will be key—especially among younger voters, women, and working-class families. And no, this isn’t about another round of billboards in South Florida—those are campaign tactics. What voters want right now are real solutions.

Trump and Latino Voters: Final Thoughts

At The Latino Effect, we’ll keep tracking these trends to understand them and ensure our communities stay informed, represented, and heard.

Elisa Totaro
IG : @Totaro.Elisa