Let’s be frank: we cannot predict who will win the presidential election. In fact, no one can, and anyone making predictions right now is simply gambling, much like at a casino. What we can do is dissect the public conversation to shed light on the election within the context of how the campaign has unfolded.

While trying to predict the outcome is perfectly legitimate—and might even have a good chance of success in a close race—it’s essential to understand that such predictions are based on chance, not statistics. On our end, using highly reliable polls, our aim is to identify which candidate is currently favored by public opinion, as well as which messages resonate most with the general public and with Latinos in particular.

What Have Been the Main Issues of Both Campaigns?

Each campaign has specific topics that stand out. For Donald Trump, the primary issues are the economy and immigration, while for Kamala Harris, they are reproductive rights and democracy.

Of course, both candidates face constant public scrutiny and must address a multitude of topics beyond their main issues, but these are the anchors they return to repeatedly to communicate their messages and rally support. 

The Economy and Immigration: Two Big Topics That Divide the Public Conversation Prior to the Election:

The state of the economy—or rather, citizens’ perception of it—has historically been one of the most critical factors in evaluating public opinion about the country’s current reality and future direction. A positive perception of the economy usually leads to a favorable evaluation of the country’s situation and optimism about the future.

Why does this matter? Historically, it correlates with an incumbent candidate’s chances of electoral success. If the economy is perceived as strong, the candidate associated with the sitting government is more likely to win.

According to YouGov data from October 29, 64% of Americans believe the country is “on the wrong track,” while only 25% disagree. Within that group, Latinos tend to be slightly more optimistic, with 30% stating the country is “on the right track,” though this isn’t statistically significant.

When asked about the economic situation specifically, 28% of Americans rate it positively, 29% neutrally, and 38% negatively. The negative outlook grows when looking toward the future; 48% believe the economy is worsening, compared to 21% who feel it’s improving. This perception aligns with individuals’ personal experiences—when asked if their finances improved or worsened over the past year, 40% report worsening, while only 18% report improvement.

Latinos, once again, have a slightly more favorable view of the current economic reality than the general population. 35% of Latinos hold a positive view of the economy, while 36% view it negatively. However, they share the general concern about the future, with 45% believing the economy is showing signs of decline.

Immigration

Regarding immigration, public opinion is also generally negative. Currently, a slight majority (36%) believes “immigration makes the U.S. a worse country,” while nearly as many (35%) believe it makes the country better. These views become polarized along partisan lines, with a majority of Democrats (60%) holding a positive view of immigrants, compared to a majority of Republicans (63%) who hold a negative view.

Specifically, when evaluating the Biden administration’s handling of immigration policy, 59% disapprove, while 31% approve. Filtering this data by party preferences reveals near-unanimous disapproval among Republicans (92%), while Democrats are less unanimous in their support (24% of Democrats also disapprove).

It’s noteworthy that a majority of Latinos in the U.S. (36%) share the general view that “immigration makes the U.S. a worse country.” However, when assessing the link between immigration and crime, most (38%) believe that immigrants are “less prone to crime” than U.S. citizens. Latinos seem to accept that irregular immigration is a problem that needs to be addressed but reject the notion that it leads to increased criminality.

Reproductive Rights: A Controversial Topic in the Public Conversation before the election:

A majority of Americans (56%) support restoring abortion rights as established under “Roe v. Wade.” Additionally, 77% oppose a national abortion ban, and a majority (47%) support legislation establishing abortion as a right in every state.

Latino views on this issue align with the general population and, in some cases, show even stronger support for abortion rights. For example, 53% of Latinos support federal legislation for abortion rights, 62% favor reinstating “Roe v. Wade,” and 68% oppose a national abortion ban.

These sentiments are reflected in referendums in various states, such as Ohio and Kansas, both governed by Republicans. In Ohio’s November 7 referendum last year, the pro-abortion-rights option won with 57%, while in Kansas, the pro-abortion-rights side won with 59% in an August 3, 2022, vote.

Democracy:

Regarding democracy, Americans have a critical, even frustrated, perspective. When asked if they are satisfied with how democracy functions in the U.S., 57% express dissatisfaction (35% “somewhat dissatisfied” and 22% “completely dissatisfied”), while only 32% express satisfaction (only 8% say they are “completely satisfied”).

Latinos also view U.S. democracy negatively, with 33% saying they are “somewhat dissatisfied” and 21% “completely dissatisfied.”

Which Matters More: Economy and Immigration or Abortion and Democracy?

Americans prioritize issues as follows:

Economy/Inflation: 35%

Immigration Crisis: 13%

Abortion: 9%

Democracy, or concerns about its preservation, doesn’t appear prominently, although it may be loosely related to “civil rights and liberties,” which account for 7% of priorities.

Donald Trump Connects Better with Majority Priorities

Trump’s two main issues align more closely with public priorities, giving him a stronger cognitive presence among voters and greater reach for his messaging. However, it’s important to consider specific opinions about each candidate’s potential performance.

When asked “who would do a better job handling the economy,” 45% favor Trump, while 40% favor Harris—a +5% lead for Trump, though not overwhelming.

For income groups, most people earning under $100,000 annually prefer Trump for the economy, while those earning over $100,000 tend to favor Harris. This suggests the Republican campaign’s message is resonating with working-class and low-income Americans.

However, among Latinos, Harris is favored on economic performance, with 45% for Harris and 36% for Trump. While this may seem counterintuitive, historically, there’s a slow, steady increase in support for the Republican option.

On the immigration crisis, Trump’s advantage grows, with 49% saying he would handle it better, compared to 36% for Harris. The +14% gap reflects support from independents and suggests that Latinos are nearly evenly split, which benefits the Republican campaign.

Harris’s Message Resonates More with Women

Although Trump’s priorities align better with the general public’s, Harris’s messaging resonates strongly among women, especially regarding reproductive rights. A majority of women prefer Harris over Trump as president, 50% to 43%, likely due to reproductive rights being a high priority, only surpassed by the economy.

On reproductive rights, Harris has a +17% advantage over Trump. This appeal among women, especially on reproductive rights, provides significant strength for the Democratic campaign.

Among Latinos, Harris has an even larger lead in this area, with 57% favoring her on reproductive rights, compared to 28% for Trump.

A red flag in the Public Conversation prior to the Election:

Harris’s campaign may struggle to generate sufficient impact with warnings about democracy’s fragility. Public frustration with democracy’s current performance presents a significant barrier to mobilizing electoral support around protecting democracy and signals a concerning situation for the political system as a whole.

The Latino Effect editorial team