Analysis: What Happened with Latinos in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Latinos in the 2024 presidential election were the center of attention. During the final days of the campaign, a controversy over comments made by a comedian at a Republican event heightened expectations about Latino voter preferences, sparking intense debates and numerous public statements from artists and other prominent figures.

Now that we know the election results and have more clarity on the final numbers… it’s worth asking: What happened with Latinos in the presidential election? Let’s take a look…

Harris Won the Latino Vote, but Trump Made Big Gains

Kamala Harris captured 54% of the Latino vote, retaining the majority support from this group. However, the headline story isn’t the majority she won but rather Trump’s steady gains among Latino voters over the past three elections:

• 2016: Trump won 28% of Latino support.
• 2020: His support rose to 32%.
• 2024: He captured an impressive 46%, nearly doubling his support from eight years prior.

These numbers translated into real-world results:

• In Florida, Donald Trump won Miami-Dade County. This is a feat no Republican had achieved since 1988.
• In Nevada, he tied Harris in Latino support, with 59% of Latino men in the state backing him.
• In Texas, Trump not only won the Latino vote by over 10% but also flipped Starr County, a region with a 97% Hispanic population that had voted Democratic since 1892.

Key Issues for Latino Voters in the Presidential Election

Two main issues seemed to drive Latino support for Trump:

• Economic Concerns: For many Latino voters, economic stability is a priority. Rising prices and inflation made voters skeptical of the current administration. Trump’s messaging on improving the economy resonated strongly.
• Immigration Crisis: While Latino voters are generally pro-immigration, many disapproved of uncontrolled illegal border crossings, which have had a significant impact on border communities and urban areas alike. Starr County, for instance, supported Trump despite his hardline immigration policies, showing frustration with how the crisis has been handled.

Challenges Ahead for Both Parties

• For Democrats: There is a clear need to reconnect with Latino voters on issues like the economy and immigration. Also, addressing their concerns with substantive policies rather than taking their support for granted.
• For Republicans and Trump: The challenge lies in meeting Latino voters’ high expectations, particularly on economic recovery, while balancing their views on immigration policies and other social issues.

This reflects the increasing diversity and complexity of the Latino electorate, making it a crucial swing vote, not only in this presidential election, but in general in U.S. politics.

The Latino Effect editorial team