Let me just start by saying that I already voted in this very polarized election. I am a Latina born in Venezuela who became an American citizen a few years ago. I will not tell who I voted for, but I will say that, probably like many latino voters, I did not support all the options of one political party.

Being able to express my opinions through my vote is very special for me so I did my research before I went to cast my vote. This might be the case for many others Latinos, that, like me, were born in countries were democracy is not a given. But, as I have always stated, the Latino population in the US is very diverse and too many variables, including country of origin or heritage, state where they live and age impact how they think and what they want.

That being said, for poll purposes they are studied as a block. And what we have seen in the polls is that the Latino electorate, traditionally a Democratic stronghold, is exhibiting notable shifts in support during the 2024 presidential election cycle. Recent polls indicate a growing inclination towards Republican candidates, particularly former President Donald Trump.

Polls Indicate a Shift of Support among Latino Voters

A USA Today/Suffolk University poll conducted in late October 2024 reveals that Trump leads among Latino voters by 11 percentage points. This is a significant departure from previous election cycles. This trend is attributed to various factors, including economic concerns, immigration policies, and perceptions of exploitation. 

Additionally, a Reuters/Ipsos poll from late October 2024 shows that Trump has nearly closed the gap with Hispanic men, trailing Vice President Kamala Harris by just 2 percentage points in this group. This is a considerable improvement from his 19-point deficit against Joe Biden in 2020.

“It’s the economy, stupid!”

Economic issues, notably inflation and job security, are paramount for many Latino voters giving their support. A Pew Research Center survey indicates that 85% of Latino voters consider the economy very important to their vote, followed by health care and violent crime. 

This focus on economic stability is influencing their support for presidential candidates. And on this topic, former President Donald Trump fares better than VP Kamala Harris on most (if not all) polls.

Latinos are against illegal immigration

Immigration remains a central issue for Latino voters as shown in recent polls published by Pew Research and the Hispanic Federation. It’s a known fact that the surge of illegal immigration during Biden’s administration hurts Harris chances of positioning herself as a leader on this problem.

Support among Latino Voters: An uneven block

Polls are definitely saying that Latinos, as a block, have been shifting their preferences towards Republican. Polls however, as we all know, don’t always tell the whole story.

For example, the recent situation of the Trump campaign with the Puerto Rico jokes might very well impact the preference of Latino voters of Puerto Rican origin in Pennsylvania.

Each of the battleground states has a significant number of Latino voters and yes, economy is a transversal issue that all Latinos care about. However, it is crucial to be able to tell the nuances of the Latino community in those states to effectively turn their preferences into an actual vote.

The number of Latino voters that ultimately cast their vote in the battleground states might very well decide this Presidential election.