Analysis: Miami’s Mayoral Election Is Local, but It Will Likely Have a National Impact

The first round of the election for mayor of the city of Miami, held last November 4, behaved normally in terms of voter turnout for a local contest (around 21% of the electorate). However, the result it produced has been unprecedented from a political standpoint.

An unprecedented result in the first round

Although no candidate reached the 50% required to win without a runoff, it is striking that Democratic candidate Eileen Higgins, a Miami-Dade County commissioner, took first place with 13,325 votes (35.96%). She was followed by Republican candidate Emilio González, former city manager, with 7,214 votes (19.47%). This is the first time in the city’s history that a woman has positioned herself with strong chances of winning the mayoralty. It’s also the first time in the last 24 years that a non-Latina Democratic woman has done so.

The predominance of Cuban men in Miami

Given how much of the current century has already passed, it is worth highlighting the characteristics of all the mayors elected in the city of Miami.

Between 1998 and 2001, the mayor was Joe Carollo, a Republican Cuban American born in Caibarién, Cuba. Between 2001 and 2009, it was Manny Díaz, also Cuban American, initially elected as an independent and later linked to the Democratic Party. From 2009 to 2017, the mayor was Tomás Regalado, a Republican and also Cuban American. And from 2017 it has been Francis Suárez, a Republican and son of former mayor Xavier Suárez, the first Miami mayor born in Cuba.

Thus, it becomes evident that Eileen Higgins, originally from Ohio, is a figure who stands in sharp contrast to the city’s political tradition. She’s simultaneously breaking with three patterns of continuity: male, preferably Republican, and Cuban American.

Miami, a quintessential Latin American city

Cuban American political hegemony cannot be understood without considering Miami’s demographic evolution and transformation. The numbers shown by the censuses since 2000 are very clear.

According to U.S. Census data, the city’s population has grown from 362,470 inhabitants in 2000 to 442,241 in 2020, with more recent estimates (ACS 2023) putting it at around 456,000 residents. This population growth reflects the fact that Miami has consolidated itself as a hub of international immigration and a focal point of Latin American investment in North America.

The numbers tell the story

To get as much detail as possible, let us take a closer look at the numbers. In 2000, Miami’s Latino population accounted for 65.8% of the city’s total. By 2010, that share had increased to 70% and, finally, according to the 2020 Census—the most recent—it reached 70.2%, far surpassing non-Latino whites (14%) and African Americans (11.9%).

It is important to note that we are not talking about “Latinos” in the abstract. The 2000 Census shows that around 52% of the city’s total population was of Cuban origin. This figure fell to 34.4% in 2010 and remained around 35% in 2020—meaning that today at least half of Miami’s Latino population is Cuban American. The rest is made up of a mosaic distributed among Central Americans (particularly Nicaraguans and Hondurans) and South Americans (primarily Colombians, Venezuelans, Peruvians, and Argentines).

Latino identity no longer seems to guarantee victory in Miami

Emilio González not only embodies the city’s electoral tradition (male, Republican, and Cuban American). He has also managed to add very important endorsements, such as those of Governor Ron DeSantis and President Donald Trump. The president, in a post on his social network, presented him as the candidate capable of keeping Miami on the path of business growth, with low taxes and a hard-line stance on insecurity and illegal immigration.

What is notable on this occasion is that, unlike previous electoral cycles, racial or ethnic identity was not enough to give González a first-round victory. It does not appear to be a sufficient guarantee for the runoff either. This underscores the need to understand the influence that national political dynamics have on local elections.

Latinos and the national political landscape

President Donald Trump won very significant support from Latino voters during the 2024 presidential election. He lost them by barely three points at the national level, compared to the 20- to 25-point advantages Democrats had enjoyed in the 2016 and 2020 elections. The shift was particularly marked in states such as Texas and Florida, where the president obtained at least 50% of the Latino vote.

However, twelve months after that outcome, a warning light came on for Republicans with the results of the 2025 elections in states such as New Jersey and Virginia, where Democratic candidates regained broad margins of support among Latino voters, in some cases even surpassing 65%.

Even in Miami

That decline in Latino support was also evident in the first round of the Miami mayoral election. A possible cause is the growing concern over national issues such as inflation, the cost of living, and more aggressive immigration policies that have generated fear within the community.

This last point has been especially sensitive in South Florida, prompting local Republican leaders to propose less intimidating approaches to tackling illegal immigration. This is the case of The Dignity Act initiative put forward by Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar.

Conclusion

For all of the above reasons, one might assume that if Eileen Higgins wins, Democrats will argue that Republican support among Latinos has limits—even in emblematic cities like Miami—, thus opening the door to a possible reconstruction of electoral coalitions built around material concerns (housing, transportation, corruption) rather than national, racial, or ethnic identities.

On the other hand, if González prevails, the Republican Party could regain momentum to claim that its Latino support base was not a one-off episode in 2024, but the beginning of a deeper realignment in which Republicans position themselves as the vehicle through which Latinos defend their interests and confront their fears.

The Latino Effect editorial team