In 1812, 36 years after the Declaration of Independence of the United States, a political nature word was born in Boston, Massachusetts, that would gain importance over time and space. It referred to the act of modifying electoral district boundaries following an eminently partisan criterion, with the clear intention of benefiting one side in its pursuit of power.
More than 200 years have passed, and the term gerrymandering is still making headlines, with the State of Texas as the most recent episode fueling controversy in public opinion, though surely it won’t be the last.
Gerry + salamander + ing = gerrymandering
Elkanah Tisdale, a cartoonist based in Boston in the 1810s, made an illustration that became well known and famous in his time. Tisdale took the map of the new electoral districts of Massachusetts, redrawn by Governor Elbridge Gerry with the open intention of benefiting the Democratic-Republican Party of the era, and painted over them a salamander to highlight the ridiculous shape in which politicians had redesigned the electoral map.
From then on, by combining Gerry’s surname with the word salamander, and adding the English gerund “-ing,” the term gerrymandering was coined. Giving it from the start a negative connotation or at least one suggestive of distrust and premeditated interests.
Trump Asked for 5 Republican Seats and Texas Responded: the start of the «new gerrymandering»
The 2026 elections, like all midterms, are strategic for the sitting president, since their outcome will determine whether he has the support of Congress to advance his agenda.
Anticipating this electoral milestone, President Donald Trump is preparing several measures so that the Republican Party can face it in the best possible way. Among them stands out the push he gave to modifying Texas’s electoral districts. Which in theory would mean an advantage for Republicans by potentially giving them five new districts with electorates aligned with the ruling party.
The redrawing of Texas congressional districts was not without friction. On the contrary, it was marked by controversy, fueled by the strong opposition of the state’s Democratic congress members. As well as warnings from Democratic leaders from other states, pointing out to public opinion the possible consequences of Texas Republicans’ actions.
The new Texas electoral map has been celebrated by President Trump as a victory. But at the same time, it has sparked similar actions in California initially, with the potential to continue in New York and Illinois, giving Democrats the chance to counter what they see as an unfair imbalance heading into the 2026 midterms.
Latinos in Texas: The Big Bet in the new gerrymandering
But amid this entire scenario, it is worth pausing to ask: how do Texas Republicans know that the new five electoral districts will be favorable to them in the next congressional election? What logic underpins their calculation? What is the target population they seek to consolidate electorally? The answer to these questions can be summarized in one word: Latinos.
During the last presidential election, the Republican Party, with Donald Trump as a leader, achieved a significant rebound in Latino voter support. To get a sense of this shift favoring Republicans, consider the following data: in 2016, Democrats won 66% of the Latino vote, outpacing Republicans by more than 38 percentage points. Four years later, in 2020, Democrats fell to 61%, leading Republicans by 25 points, 13 fewer than in the previous cycle; and in 2024, Democrats got 51% of the Latino vote, surpassing Republicans by just 3 percentage points.
That national trend was even stronger in Texas, where President Trump managed to win the majority of the Latino vote. This was driven by support in 14 of the 18 counties along the state’s border with Mexico—counties with large Latino populations and some with more than a century of pro-Democratic electoral history.
With this data in mind, Texas Republican authorities pushed forward the redistricting effort, placing the weight of the new five pro-Republican districts on the increased Latino support demonstrated in 2024 for President Trump.
More keys to understand this new gerrymandering with Texas Latinos
However, this bet is not entirely secure and should be viewed with caution. While it is true that Republicans have increasingly gained favor among Latinos in recent election cycles, it is also important to consider that Latinos are a very diverse electorate (multiracial, with varied national identities, different languages, and distinct interests). They are sensitive to controversial issues such as immigration raids and access to jobs.
From a demographic-electoral perspective, Texas is the second state in the country with the highest percentage of Latino voters, after New Mexico. With one-third of the total electorate, Latinos carry significant weight in Texas politics. In fact, they becoming a fundamental group for any politician seeking to win elections in the state.
Additionally, it is very important to remember that Latinos in Texas have traditionally been Democrats in past elections, despite having supported Donald Trump in 2024. In 2012, 60% of Texas Latinos voted for Barack Obama; in 2016, 61% voted for Hillary Clinton; and in 2020, 67% voted for Biden. In other words, they are a shifting group not married to one party, but rather one that responds to their own interests and well-being.
That is why, despite the apparent certainty that the new five districts in Texas will favor Republicans, it would be wise to adopt a more cautious stance and closely monitor the evolution of Latino public opinion in the state.
The Latino Effect editorial team
